Keeping an Eye on Technology Futures, No Hidden Agendas, New Attitudes, No Platitudes!
China's total growth is more than the US, Europe and Japan combined. India by itself is contributing more growth to the world economy than the US.
Chinese demand for oil, metals and all the other raw materials of industrialization is pushing commodity prices to ever-higher peaks. Chinese and Indian crude oil imports will almost quadruple in 20 years, creating an ever worsening supply "crunch".
The value of the US $ keeps falling. It was recently about 64% of the euro. When I visited India in early 2007, I got 45 Indian Rupees for my $; at the end of 2007, it was only 36 - a decline of more than 20%. How low can it go?
The price of Oil has jumped beyond $100 a barrel. Actually, oil prices have not increased - the dollar has declined. China is dumping its huge horde of $ - over a trillion - and switching to the euro. Three of the biggest oil exporters, Iran, Venezuela and Russia, are now demanding payment in euros rather than dollars. Clearly the dollar is losing its status as the world currency.
For most Americans, if they don't travel abroad, the only visible effect is higher fuel prices at the pump. The prices of Chinese imports remain the same, because the Chinese yuan is still supposed to be pegged to the dollar. But that too is changing - the dollar has already declined by about 15% against the yuan. This means consumer prices will skyrocket, and we'll have "stagflation".
Capitalism has no loyalty, but follows growth and success. Follow the money: You'll find that a huge share of American capital is pouring into India, China and other overseas funds.
Meanwhile, Sovereign Wealth funds, or SWFs, from countries flush with cash - Dubai, Saudi Arabia, China - control as much as $3 trillion, and this could jump to $12 trillion by 2012. China has so much money that their wealth-funds are "investing" in bailing out ailing US financial giants like Citibank, Bear Stearns, JP Morgan. What do you think their motives are? Check CBS-60-minutes (6 April, 08) - weblink below.
America cannot continue to spend $2 billion a day on an unpopular war, and live on borrowed money, while the living standard of the American middle class continues to decline.
Whoever the next President is, and whatever their political promises, it's difficult to imagine how they can dig America out of this hole that keeps growing deeper and deeper.
